David Amoyal: The Ten Mercato Commandments

David Amoyal: The Ten Mercato Commandments
2017-04-07 - 13:10
There are some albums that have made such an impression on me that even twenty years after their release, I still remember exactly where I was when I first heard them. “Life after Death” certainly falls in that category, not only because of the quality of the tracks, but also because Notorious BIG had been killed about two weeks before its release.
 
I’ve been thinking a lot of about Biggie recently since there has been such a revival for 90s era rap after the success of “Straight Out of Compton” and the recent death of Prodigy of the influential duo Mobb Deep- it also just so happens that one of the most iconic tracks off “Life after Death”, perfectly explain how the transfer market works.
 
So for my one year anniversary of writing columns for Calciomercato, I decided to summarize all that transfer news junkies can learn from the track “The Ten Crack Commandments”- some of the rules are more obvious than others so please bear with me taking some artistic freedom towards the end….
 
 
“Rule Number Uno, never let no one know
How much dough you hold cause you know
The cheddar breed jealousy 'specially
If that man f*^ked up, get yo' a$$ stuck up”

 
In recent years we have seen the figures for transfer fees raise dramatically- in addition to a wave of very wealthy owners coming from the Middle East, the United States and Asia, we have also seen leagues signing exorbitant TV deals which have made many teams flush with cash.
 
It’s no surprise to see teams demand huge fees from Premier League clubs as a result, and while that may feel like extortion, it’s also important to remember that transfer fees ultimately only matter if a player flops and if “overpaying” for a player prevents you from making another addition at a position of need.
 
Last summer breaking the transfer fee record for Pogba didn’t prevent Manchester United from signing the other 3 players Mourinho had promised. I guess if you have enough cheddar you can tell the world how much dough you hold and what you plan on doing with it…
 
By the same token you also shouldn’t count in another team’s wallet. Two summers ago, Juventus was coming off making close to 100 million euro in the Champions League but then ended up breaking even between incoming and outgoing moves- it will be interesting to see if that changes this year…

“Number 2, never let 'em know your next move
Don't you know Bad Boys move in silence and violence?
Take it from your highness”

 
By now you are probably used to seeing most transfer moves being widely leaked to the media, if you follow the right people you are usually not surprised when your favorite team signs a new player or loses one of its stars.
 
While teams and agents leak info to the media for a variety of reasons, sometimes teams act quietly and swoop in to make a move out of the blue. Just last week it looked like there was a lot of momentum for Fabio Borini to join Lazio and then Milan’s new director Mirabelli swooped in and got the deal done.
 
Some clubs like Bayern Munich are notorious for acting quietly and quickly to get their targets, and now more teams are trying to take that approach. I could see Inter becoming the Italian version of this trend- there were no leaks when Stefano Pioli was fired during the season and new director Walter Sabatini has stated he’ll go out of his way to act discreetly this summer.   

“Number 3, never trust no-bo-dy
Your moms'll set that a$$ up, properly gassed up
Hoodied and masked up, $hit, for that fast buck
She be laying in the bushes to light that a$$ up”

 
Clubs need to be very careful when they are being used for the purpose of getting a rich raise. As an example, last summer I never got the vibe that Mauro Icardi was truly thinking of leaving Inter- but his agent used the concrete interest from Napoli and Arsenal to get a substantial raise for the second summer in a row.
By the same token, we also see clubs joining the races for players they don’t even really want simply to raise the price for one of their rivals
 
“Number 4, I know you heard this before
Never get high on your own supply”

 
This is probably the most famous of all the rules used in the drug trade, but in football we see a version of this when team overrate the value of their own players. As a good rule of thumb, it’s always better to sell a player a year too soon rather than a year too late, especially now that players have more and more leverage going into the last year of their contracts.

This rule is even more important when it comes to overrating prospects- because they are a blank canvas on which we can project pretty much anything we want, it becomes incredibly easy to overvalue a young player. Remember all the hype on Hachim Mastour? His story is much more typical with prospects than say Gigio Donnarumma.
 
“Number 5, never sell no crack where you rest at
I don't care if they want a ounce, tell 'em bounce”


As a rule of thumb, you should try to avoid selling any of your best players within your league, or even worse to one of your rivals. Last summer this rule was broken with Gonzalo Higuain and Miralem Pjanic joining Juventus from Napoli and Roma respectively- those shocking transfers were the reason why Inter, Torino and Napoli put exit clauses valid only abroad in new contracts for Icardi, Belote and Hysaj respectively.
I guess the folks who run German clubs are more into West Coast rap though…  

“Number 6, that goddamn credit? Dead it
You think a crackhead paying you back, $hit forget it!”

 
When a player wildly under achieves at a club after an expensive transfer, usually the best move is to send him on loan to a place where he can re establish his value. In these cases we are seeing clubs becoming more shrewd by including options to buy that become forced after a certain number of games played. While West Ham decided to bench Simone Zaza right before his option would vest, he did well enough at Valencia that they ended up just keeping him.

“7, this rule is so underrated
Keep your family and business completely separated”

 
In Italy I would say the opposite is true- some clubs do so much business together that it almost feels like the directors are related to one another. With co ownership deals no longer allowed in Italy, we have seen clubs get very creative with deals involving options to buy and counter options to buy at a higher price.

The lesson here is to read the fine details on deals, and to not look at transactions just in a vacuum when clubs do a lot of business with one another- look at the bigger picture. Inter/Sampdoria, Roma with Torino and Sassuolo come to mind, while Juventus seems to collaborate with a lot of lower tier clubs on deals.  
 
“Number 8, never keep no weight on you!
Them cats that squeeze your guns can hold jums too

 
While it’s great when you see your favorite club spending like a drunken sailor, sporting directors also need to be aware of the restrictions that come with Financial Fair Play. Also giving out huge wages to a new player can cause the domino effect of having your best current players asking for more money.

Number 9 shoulda been Number 1 to me,
If you ain't gettin' bagged stay the f^*k from police
If n$^6as think you snitchin' they ain't trying to listen
They be sittin' in your kitchen, waiting to start hittin'”


This to me relates the way fans absorb transfer news. Take it from someone who has been working with arguably the top reporter in football- posting transfer rumors is not easy. I would only judge the accuracy of what someone is saying when they say “player X is joining club Y- it’s a done deal” because anything else is so hard to prove.

Part of reporting on transfer news is providing updates on which players a club is pursuing, when an offer is made and if the negotiation is in the advanced stages. Just reporting that a team is interested in a player doesn’t mean that his current club will sell it, and just because your favorite club made an offer, doesn’t mean the deal will definitely be done either.
  
Number 10, a strong word called consignment
Strictly for live men, not for freshmen
If you ain't got the clientele, say "hell no!"
'Cause they gon' want they money rain sleet hail snow
Follow these rules you'll have mad bread to break up

 
If you acquire a player on a straight loan with no option to buy, you then can’t complain if that player doesn’t want to stay with you after his loan spell ends. We saw this with Mohamed Salah at Fiorentina who are still fighting Chelsea and Roma in the courts- they should just turn the page and move on.
 
In his infinite wisdom, Notorious BIG not only spelled out the rules for the crack game- he also gave you the blue print on how to follow transfer news. A sincere thank you to all those who have read and shared my columns on Calciomercato for the past year…