Was Spalletti right to drop Francesco Totti?
Until very recently, there was little suggestion that Totti would be one of the latter. Scoring his 300th career goal and becoming Serie A’s second all-time scorer aged 39, Roma’s captain has maintained a remarkably consistent output.
Looking at Totti’s long-term goal contribution trends and normalising per 90 minutes played, his commendable late career output is noticeable. Separating goals and assists, we can see that, from about 2005 onwards, the creative side of his game became increasingly important, while his goal-scoring fell off a cliff after a bumper 25 goals in 31 games in the 2009/10 season.
Perhaps a tad ironically, Totti’s strongest season in absolute goal-scoring terms – 32 goals in 2006/07 - was also under Luciano Spalletti, the manager to have now controversially dropped him.
Totti, described by Spalletti as “Roma’s history”, is unlikely to feature in the Champions League against Real Madrid, where conceding two away goals and scoring none in the first leg has seriously damaged any chances of progression past the Spanish giants.
Their captain would once have been the first name on the team-sheet in light of such a challenge – last campaign, ‘The Golden Boy’ scored against Manchester City to become the competition’s oldest scorer. Spalletti, though, is likely to continue the recent trend of using Diego Perotti as his false 9 instead, supported on the wings by El Shaarawy and Mohammed Salah.
On the evidence above, it may seem a bizarre decision. Considering Totti’s individual output hasn’t really dropped, why should he be? This is where the connection between individual and team output is potentially important.
Totti’s goal contributions may not have decreased, but it could be having an overall negative effect on his team for him to keep it up. Which do you prefer: a club where a striker scores 10 goals a season and the team scores 50, or one where a striker scores 30 and the team only manages 40?
Developed by Jörg Seidel, GoalImpact measures the effect of individuals on their team’s goal difference through an algorithmic method similar to ‘Shapley Values’. In essence, it gives you an insight into the net effect a player is having on his team.
Where Totti’s individual output may have remained consistent, his GoalImpact has dropped significantly. To contextualise, Roma’s average player has a GoalImpact of ~ 140, while bottom of the league Hellas Verona’s mean is ~ 108.
This suggests that Totti, so long synonymous with Roma, may have become more of a hindrance to the club than previously thought. It could be that although Totti is an offensive threat, his lack of defensive covering negates any benefit – in a recent press conference, Spalletti used a video clip of Salah tracking back after scoring a goal to exemplify the sort of rounded contribution he is looking for from his players.
With the enigmatic King of Rome’s contract up in the summer, this may be a narrative defining moment in his career. Spalletti has received a fair share of criticism for his recent decisions, but the case is hardly as black and white as it is being spun by some.
It may be harsh, but, at some point, all players succumb to their own mortality. Eventually, the party will need to go on without Francesco Totti.
Bobby Gardiner @BobbyGardiner
