Horncastle: Can a risk-taking Juventus trump all the odds?
Matthias Sammer was playing for Dortmund that night in April 1995. Now sporting director at Bayern, he sits beside Pep Guardiola on the bench on match days. Just imagine the scene. “Pep, this one time… at Dortmund.”
Make no mistake, Guardiola will not underestimate Juventus. He knows what they’re like from his time in Italy as a player for Brescia and Roma. The Old Lady has got his respect. The J Stadium has too.
“To come here and play like we did is one of the most special days of my career,” he said following the first leg. “We couldn’t expect to come here and win 7-0 and not allow our opponents out of their own half.” Juventus aren’t Roma… Pep then appeared to ruffle the Old Lady’s hair and give her a pinch on the cheek. “They had three chances and scored two goals. Bravi,” Guardiola observed, the irony undisguised in his expression.
As they say in Italy, Bayern had Juventus sotto assedio for the first hour. Under siege. Their ball possession was 63%. Thomas Müller missed a sitter before opening the scoring. The pass count was 675 to 330. The final third entries 209 to 66. A red tide. But it receded once Arjen Robben doubled Bayern’s lead in the 55th minute and the shine on a hitherto flawless performance was tarnished.
Juventus, as Max Allegri pointed out, did have chances in the first half. In fact the first of the game fell to them as a long ball from Andrea Barzagli caught out Bayern’s defence. Unfortunately for them Mario Mandzukic snatched at the shot, but didn’t get the power on it to trouble Manuel Neuer.
Again at 0-0, Paul Pogba intercepted a misplaced pass from former teammate Arturo Vidal and released Paulo Dybala down the left. He crossed to Mandzukic who, slow to react, slid in and skewed a glorious opportunity high and wide.
The scoreline was also goalless when Dybala found himself behind the Bayern defence but was unable to bring a lofted ball over the top from Leonardo Bonucci down and into his control.
However, it wasn’t until Juventus were 2-0 down that they really began to go about imposing themselves on Bayern. They played higher up the pitch as Opta’s average position graphic demonstrates. Mandzukic pounced on a Joshua Kimmich mistake and played in Dybala to pull one back. Then Allegri affected the game from the bench. Alvaro Morata and Stefano Sturaro - a player with the same initials as Stevan Seagal - combined to equalise. The siege was lifted.
Giving up a couple of away goals in Europe is never a good look. But rescuing what seemed like a lost cause with a commendable comeback ensured it was seen in a favourable light. Allegri claims this is what he wanted all along. A second leg like a final. The winner takes it all. Dortmund `95. Kyiv `98. Barcelona 2003. The game of their season.
Ample encouragement comes from the final half hour of the first leg and Juventus have got to take it from there. Have courage. Be bold. It’s as Guardiola says: “There is no greater risk than taking no risks at all.” The odds are against them. Juventus are under no illusion about the task that lies ahead. But no team is unbeatable. Mainz shocked Bayern at the Allianz arena a fortnight ago. Juventus can’t play in Munich like they did in the opening 20 minutes in Turin. They were frantic, anxious, unsure of themselves. Evra and Bonucci insist it won’t happen again.
What Juventus have to do is trust their defenders more. Gigi Buffon has gone 15 hours and 26 minutes without conceding a goal in Serie A. The backline has kept 10 consecutive clean sheets in that time. Of course they will need protecting and a helping hand but Juventus’ midfielders and strikers must remember that they’re there to be midfielders and strikers. If Bonucci is going to play a long ball over the top for Alvaro Morata to chase down, Morata needs to be up the pitch, not on the edge of his own penalty area.
Allegri is a firm believer that the difference at this level is made by technique and Juventus didn’t execute as well as they could from this standpoint in the first leg. We mentioned Dybala’s miscontrol. But generally they have to play out better, particularly under intense pressure. They can’t dally on the ball for longer than five seconds because before you even look up, Bayern are on you. Juventus have to move the ball quicker.
Right now it looks like Allegri will play a 4-4-2. Injuries are mounting. Giorgio Chiellini is out again after a relapse and now Claudio Marchisio and Dybala aren't available. Mandzukic remains a doubt. The odds are stacking up against Juventus with each passing hour. So what does Allegri do now? Even after his horror show against Inter in the Coppa, I personally would like to see Allegri put the same faith in Daniele Rugani as Pep has placed in Kimmich and play 3-5-2. It would add another fine passer to the defence and, in theory, still allow Juventus to play out even if Bayern look to stop Bonucci doing so like they did in the first leg.
Patrice Evra has great experience and is one of Juventus’ leaders. But playing Alex Sandro would be more daring. His crosses have settled games against Man City, Milan and the Turin derby. Hernanes has to pick up where he left off in the second half of the first leg.
Pogba, Juan Cuardrado and Dybala need to keep it simple but also do the unpredictable. It must be said that losing such a selfless warrior of a player like Mandzukic is a blow. His partnership with Dybala is Juventus’ best. But Morata used to live for nights like these. He’s a Bello di Notte a la Zibi Boniek and his pace on the counter could be exactly what’s required. If Simone Zaza comes in he will have to produce another big moment to rival his match winner in the top of the table clash with Napoli.
Juventus “don’t need a miracle,” Fabrizio Ravanelli told La Stampa this morning. Just “a big performance” like the one his team put on in Dortmund two decades ago. He might want to rethink that after the Marchisio and Dybala news. But remember there’s a saying for this in Turin. “Fino alla Fine.” Until the end. It isn’t over until the Old Lady sings.
by James Horncastle (@JamesHorncastle)
