Juventus-Atletico: all the numbers and the possibilities of a Bianconeri comeback
However, Massimiliano Allegri's Juventus are not accustomed to scoring many goals and home matches are no exception. During the Allegri era, Juventus have scored 3 goals at home on just three occasions in the Champions League.
The first three-goal win came against Olympiacos in the 2014/15 season when Juve came from two consecutive away defeats against Atletico and Olympiacos in the Champions League group stage. It was a must-win match for the team, which ended 3-2 for the Bianconeri.
Secondly, Juventus' memorable 3-0 victory over Barcelona is one of these matches, with Paulo Dybala and Giorgio Chiellini on the scoresheet. This game represents one of the best showings of the Allegri era at Juventus.
And lastly, the Bianconeri won 3-0 against Young Boys Bern this season in the group stage, with Paulo Dybala scoring a hattrick at the Allianz Stadium.
Only in one case, against Barcelona, it was a knockout round match. Other matches to be recorded are the 4 cases in which Juve won 2-0 (which would guarantee extra time): 2-0 against Malmo in 14/15, 2-0 against Sevilla the following year, 2-0 with Dinamo Zagreb and 2-0 against Olympiacos last season. In all cases, however, it was in the group stage.
On the other hand, Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid conceded 3 or more goals away from home in the Champions League only on 3 occasions: in their 2-3 defeat against Olympiacos in 14/15, the 0-3 suffered at the Bernabeu against Real Madrid in the first leg of the semi-finals in 16/17 and finally this year in the 0-4 loss against Borussia Dortmund.
However, the most striking statistic is that in all competitions during Simeone's era, only 11 times have Atletico conceded at least 3 away goals. Only in 7 of these 11 cases, the result was useful to go through. 7 times in 198 away matches represent a 3% chance, statistically speaking. With Simeone on the bench, Atletico have lost 0-2 away on 9 occasions, which means the chances of going to extra time are 3.5%.
The numbers show that an incredibly difficult task is ahead of Allegri's men but they would not be the last or the first to complete a sensational comeback in the Champions League.